2:00PM Water Cooler 2/6/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Hen Track of the Day

Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Adamstown; Mt. Ephriam Highway, Frederick, Maryland, United States. “Filtered at 250 Hz. Different Behaviors: Promote. Habitat: Forest, Deciduous Forest.”

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels.” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Capitol Seizure

“McCarthy breaks with Greene on dying of Ashli Babbitt” [The Hill]. “Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) broke with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on Thursday when requested concerning the dying of Ashli Babbitt, who was shot and killed by Capitol police throughout the Jan. 6, 2021, assault, concluding she was not murdered, as Greene has mentioned. ‘I feel the police officer did his job,’ McCarthy informed reporters when requested if he agreed with Greene that Babbitt was murdered.” • RINO.

“Sorry, not sorry: Some 1/6 rioters change tune after apology” [Associated Press]. “Showing earlier than a federal decide after pleading responsible to a felony cost within the lethal Capitol riot, former West Virginia lawmaker Derrick Evans expressed regret for letting down his household and his group, saying he made a ‘essential mistake.’ Lower than a 12 months later, Evans is portraying himself as a sufferer of a politically motivated prosecution as he runs to serve in the identical constructing he stormed on Jan. 6, 2021. Evans is now calling the Justice Division’s Jan. 6 prosecutions a ‘miscarriage of justice’ and describes himself on twitter as a ‘J6 Patriot.’ ‘Some ppl have mentioned I must apologize and condemn #J6 if I need to win my election because the media will assault me,’ he tweeted just lately after asserting his bid for a U.S. Home seat in 2024. ‘I can’t compromise my values or beliefs. That’s what politicians do. We want Patriots not politicians.’ Evans joins a sequence of Jan. 6 defendants who — when up in opposition to attainable jail time in court docket — have expressed remorse for becoming a member of the pro-Trump mob that rattled the foundations of American democracy solely to strike a unique tone or downplay the riot after receiving their punishment.”

“Prime Jan. 6 investigator says FBI, different businesses might have accomplished extra to repel Capitol mob had they acted on intel” [NBC]. “The Home Jan. 6 committee concluded that the FBI and different federal safety businesses might have prevented a violent mob from overrunning the Capitol had they acted on the big quantity of intelligence collected beforehand, the chief investigator informed NBC Information in an unique interview — a judgment the committee unnoticed of its televised hearings and closing report. Former federal prosecutor Tim Heaphy, the committee’s chief investigative counsel, mentioned that whereas he endorses the panel’s foremost discovering that then-President Donald Trump sparked the riot by urging protesters to go to the Capitol, his probe documented how federal legislation enforcement failures contributed to the debacle. Trump ‘was the proximate trigger. However for his phrases, and deeds, it wouldn’t have occurred,’ mentioned Heaphy, who led lots of the key witness interviews performed by the committee. ‘That mentioned, what occurred on the Capitol was additionally affected by legislation enforcement failures to operationalize the ample intelligence that was current earlier than Jan. 6, concerning the threats of violence.’ He added, ‘Regulation enforcement had a really direct function in contributing to the safety failures that led to the violence.’” • If — tinfoil hat time — failures they had been.

Biden Administration

Mission achieved (1):

Humorous how he doesn’t like to speak about how the vast majority of Individuals died beneath his watch. pic.twitter.com/6mcWVAAUlk

— FredoLives (@FredoLives) February 3, 2023

Mission achieved (2):

My dad used to say, “A job is about much more than a paycheck. It’s about your dignity.”

A job is a ticket to a brighter future. That’s why we’ve fought to carry unemployment to its lowest level in 50 years.

I received’t cease working till everybody has a combating likelihood.

— President Biden (@POTUS) February 3, 2023

“A combating likelihood….” Till (see above) the chances kick in.

2024

Why, the ingratitude:

If I had been the Iowa Democratic Social gathering that stitched up the final caucuses in service to the institution and employed their most popular consultancy to steal votes from Sanders and provides them to Buttigieg, I’d be pissed. https://t.co/YLeWNLaqr8

— Marshall Steinbaum 🔥 (@Econ_Marshall) February 5, 2023

Nonetheless, you’ll be able to see why Clyburn wants his payoff.

Republican Funhouse

“The 5 Major Factions Of The Home GOP” [FiveThirtyEight]. Reasonable institution (Reps. David Joyce of Ohio, Younger Kim of California, Nancy Mace of South Carolina); Conservative institution (Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York, Tom Emmer of Minnesota and Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy); Far-right institution (Distinguished members: Reps. Steve Scalise of Louisiana, Patrick McHenry of North Carolina); Tea occasion conservative (Reps. Jim Jordan of Ohio, Byron Donalds of Florida, Chip Roy of Texas); Professional-Trump rebel (Reps. Matt Gaetz of Florida, Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia). The “Freedom Caucus” is distributed throughout the “Far-right institution” and the “Tea occasion conservatives.” • I dunno. I discover the reflexive resort to a spectrum slightly than a subject. What do readers suppose? I didn’t come up as a Republican, so these taxonomies should not straightforward for me to evaluate.

“Home votes to take away Omar from International Affairs panel as Democrats cry hypocrisy and ‘racism’” [Roll Call]. “‘Is anybody shocked that I’m being focused?’ Omar mentioned in an at instances emotional Thursday ground speech, which was attended by giant numbers of the Home Democratic caucus who cheered her remarks at completely different factors. ‘Is anybody shocked that I’m in some way deemed unworthy to discuss American overseas coverage or that they see me as a strong voice that must be silenced? Frankly it’s anticipated as a result of once you push energy, energy pushes again.’” • “It’s alll concerning the benjamins” is, in reality, true. AIPAC doesn’t slather all that money round for no cause. That mentioned, “While you push energy, energy pushes again.” I dunno. Possibly The Squad ought to attempt it?

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are numerous updates. So I should try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated post, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in reality, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not totally) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Who’s in Cost of Your World View?” [Matt Bivens]. Bivens helped Taibbi set up knowledge for The Twitter Recordsdata. “And, within the preliminary information we sifted by, I noticed proof for what I’d suspected beforehand, one thing the Recordsdata proceed to flesh out: That CIA, FBI and the remainder of the U.S. safety state — with little to no public dialogue, and possibly illegally — have turn into approach too comfy with policing what Individuals see, say and listen to on the Web. …Twitter employees might, for instance, forestall an individual’s tweet from displaying up in searches; or forestall a complete Twitter account from being seen by anybody that didn’t already comply with it. The corporate jargon for this was “visibility filtering”. They may and did filter an individual out of visibility, at any time when they felt that particular person’s views ought to disappear….. Visibility filtering was additionally utilized to politicians. Nonetheless one may really feel about Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, it’s startling to see that Twitter, with out informing her, labeled her Twitter account ‘not protected for work,’ as if it had been some form of pornography web site, and in addition weighed it down with a ‘don’t amplify’ setting, which might lower its attain on searches and retweets… For those who suppose that is nearly “Republicans on Twitter” although, suppose once more. The Twitter Recordsdata present Fb’s method was no completely different — and this forces a reassessment of the allegations by Bernie Sanders that again in 2017, Fb “flipped a change” to in a single day cease engagement between the favored progressive and his supporters. ‘Bernie had this great rise on Fb. We had a extremely profitable on-line video program,’ recollects Ari Rabin-Havt, Sanders’ former marketing campaign supervisor, in this video (begin across the 22:30 mark). ‘We noticed our numbers rising, rising, rising. After which in the future, actually out of nowhere — that is the Senate workplace web page, the Fb web page — it stopped getting followers. It simply lifeless stopped.’ Conferences ensued with Fb, together with with Adam Mosseri, then accountable for Fb’s newsfeeds and now head of Instagram. ‘Throughout the assembly with Mosseri,’ Rabin-Havt recounted, ;it was revealed that Fb had modified a setting on its again finish that primarily shut off the pipeline of recent subscribers to Bernie’s web page. They may not give you an affordable clarification for the modified setting.’ Most likely it had one thing to do with Fb becoming a member of with the remainder of company media to maintain folks from seeing issues like this pro-Sanders video — nonetheless the most effective quick video ever about politics in America.”

“Congress is about to reveal what could be the largest censorship system in U.S. historical past” [The Hill]. Except they produce one other yarn diagram like Benghazi. “The “Twitter information” revealed an FBI operation to watch and censor social media content material — an effort so overwhelming and intrusive that Twitter employees at one level complained internally that “they’re probing & pushing in every single place.” The experiences have indicated that dozens of FBI staff labored on the identification and elimination of fabric on a variety of topics and that Twitter largely carried out their requests. Nor was it simply the FBI, apparently. Emails reveal FBI figures like a San Francisco assistant particular agent in cost asking Twitter executives to ‘invite an OGA’ (or ‘Different Authorities Group’) to an upcoming assembly. Per week later, Stacia Cardille, a senior Twitter authorized govt, indicated the OGA was the CIA, an company beneath strict limits relating to home actions. Twitter’s personal ranks included dozens of ex-FBI brokers and executives, together with James Baker, who featured enormously in prior FBI cases of alleged bias. The Twitter information additionally present varied FBI workplaces monitoring social media and flagging ‘deceptive’ data on varied topics. The handfuls of disclosed emails are solely a fraction of Twitter’s information and don’t embody still-undisclosed however obvious authorities coordination with Fb and different social media corporations. A lot of that work apparently was accomplished by the multi-agency International Affect Process Pressure (FITF), which operated secretly it appears to censor residents. Mockingly, throughout the outcry over establishing a Disinformation Governance Board on the Division of Homeland Safety, Biden administration officers needed to have recognized they already had been using an intensive censorship system. When the administration lastly relented and disbanded the disinformation board, that censorship work seems to have continued unimpeded by the FITF and company censors.” • Has Mush purged the spooks? Or are they nonetheless infesting Twitter? Readers?

* * *

“The Individuals Who Are Fleeing the USA” [The New Republic]. ” I’m a homosexual man residing in a rustic that I concern is slowly however inexorably backsliding from flawed democracy to right-wing authoritarian rule, turning into a spot the place the rights and security of LGBTQ folks and different marginalized teams are more and more beneath assault by a Republican Social gathering and right-wing majority Supreme Courtroom that, given their approach, wouldn’t hesitate to erase them totally. In such a situation, it is smart to have an exit technique—whether or not twin citizenship, the power to work overseas, or another means to flee—within the maybe not inevitable however not unthinkable occasion that the stuff of dystopian science fiction turns into actuality.” • After all, for those who’ve needed to cope with our well being care system, you’ve already skilled a dystopian science fiction actuality.

“Watch the Nice Fall” [The Abbey of Misrule]. “Nostalgia is a curious factor. The love of a lifeless previous is, on the floor, pointless, and but it appears to be a common, pan-cultural eager for one thing higher than an equally lifeless however typically much less engaging current. That is one thing which its critics by no means appear to grasp. ‘That’s simply nostalgia’, they are saying, dismissively, once you recommend {that a} excessive avenue made up of unbiased outlets may need been higher than one big superstore, or that people songs across the hearth within the pub could be higher than Superstar Love Island. The suggestion appears to be that this factor, ‘nostalgia’, is a form of illness, like flu or measles, that simply hits you typically, with no rhyme or cause to it. After all, there’s a treatment: a dedication to Progress. To the long run, slightly than to the previous. There was no Golden Age – however there will probably be! Preserve the religion. Preserve going. I might recommend, as a substitute, that nostalgia generally is a rational response to a world heading within the unsuitable course. Maybe a sensible response too.”

“Congress Members To Put on Barcodes So Lobbyists Can Scan Costs, Self-Checkout” [Babylon Bee]. From 2019, nonetheless germane.

#COVID19

Lambert right here: I’m however a humble tapewatcher, however in contrast to Eric Topol, I’m not calling a surge, as a result of the final peak was Biden’s Omicron debacle, and after an Everest like that, what’s left? Topol’s view is the institution view: Hospital-centric. Mine is infection-centric. I don’t see the common acceleration or doubling in instances that I might count on to see based mostly on previous surges.

I’m calling a “One thing Terrible.” It’s gonna be unhealthy, in some new approach, and we don’t understand how, but (however see right here for immune system dysregulation, which is trying fairly terrible).

Lambert right here: Appears like “leveling off to a excessive plateau” throughout the board. Keep protected on the market!

• “It’s not the COVID economic system, it’s simply the economic system now” [Axios]. “‘COVID is not taking part in an essential function in our economic system,’ chair Jerome Powell informed reporters at a press convention Wednesday. The Fed chair’s feedback are an enormous deal, marking the top of an period — however they don’t imply COVID is gone. As a substitute, the shocks of the pandemic have reshaped the very material of the economic system itself. Powell was explaining why the FOMC dropped the time period ‘public well being’ from the chance elements listed in its post-meeting assertion this week. COVID continues to be on the market, it’s value emphasizing. Persons are dying from the illness each day, and getting sick. One thing Powell understands personally, he mentioned. (He examined optimistic, with gentle signs, in January.) However ‘,’ he mentioned. It doesn’t actually should be in ‘a post-meeting assertion, as an ongoing financial threat — versus, you understand, a well being problem.’” • In different phrases, our present excessive plateau (take a look at instances, positivity, and deaths) has been efficiently normalized (with, allow us to not overlook, mitigation for elites). We have now blueprint:

Now await local weather!

• And talking of normalization:

Normalization, and propaganda.

• “Reader query: Covid threat at a convention” [Violet Blue]. A wonderful wrap-up of what a private threat evaluation actually appears like, with suggestions. Effectively value a learn. I feel a lot of the particular person gadgets will probably be acquainted to NC readers, however here’s a tip I’ve not seen: “As a result of covid has been allowed to freely mass-infect (and mass-re-infect) communities and populations, it has developed on a supercharged schedule and we’re nearly out of treatments. Paxlovid is at present the final one left that works. Keep in mind that many individuals haven’t been capable of get their medical doctors to offer them Paxlovid and plenty of folks can’t take it for a variety of reasons. Learn the way the situation you’re touring to offers with Paxlovid; for example, California has quite a lot of free, no-contact choices. It could be that the resort you’re staying at might assist; discover out prematurely.” • Good level on the resort concierge, who might most likely additionally assist with sprays, and so on.

• “We Now Face an Military of COVID Viruses” [The Tyee]. “What started as an airborne pandemic pushed by a single virus has turn into a viral cloud roiling across the globe because of public insurance policies which have allowed unfettered transmission. As a consequence the pandemic now represents completely different threats in several areas for various courses of individuals at completely different instances. The rich elite attending Davos could also be protected by assessments and clear air machines, however the remainder of us face contrasting realities. Some virologists have argued that individuals shouldn’t be involved by these evolutionary doings, and that the messy world of Omicron subvariants is best left to the specialists. However that’s a patronizing angle. The pandemic impacts us all, demanding residents make selections individually and collectively. So the purpose is to not be complacent or alarmed, however curious and attentive. We have now entered an epoch of organic volatility and the dangers this entails demand fixed vigilance. Listed here are six observations on viral evolution and the way it could form our lives on this, the fourth 12 months of the pandemic.” The six: “1. One virus has turn into many…. 2. The brand new COVID soup is a novel experiment in evolution…. 3. What had been viral peaks at the moment are a continuing rising sea of infections with excessive and low tides…. 4. One pandemic has morphed into regional epidemics…. 5. Reinfections not often occurred. Now they’re commonplace…. 6. We will do extra to blunt the evolutionary risk of COVID subvariants.”

• “CO2.Click on Overview – An Inexpensive CO2 Monitor with Superior Options” [Breathe Safe Air]. It is a good tutorial on CO2 displays and a usually favorable evaluation. One optimistic: The CO2.Click on has “a measurement titled ‘RFA’. RFA stands for the rebreathed fraction of air…. I like this small addition as a result of whereas the elements per million readings are helpful, the RFA share can also be an amazing stat to share. If I’m with my buddies and so they ask concerning the monitor, it’s typically exhausting to clarify carbon dioxide by way of elements per million and their affect, as by the point I’ve defined it, they’ve normally misplaced curiosity. Alternatively, if I clarify it as ‘you’re rebreathing 2% of your air proper now!’ they are typically way more .” One detrimental: “The construct high quality of the case additionally usually doesn’t really feel pretty much as good as a mass-manufactured product such because the Aranet4. The plastic high quality doesn’t really feel as excessive, and the system feels extra fragile. Whereas I might nonetheless be glad to stay the CO2.Click on in my backpack and carry it round with me, I really feel extra assured within the construct high quality of gadgets such because the Aranet4 or Qingping Air Monitor Lite.” • Additionally, the worth is true!

• “I Purchased a CO2 Monitor, and It Broke Me” [The Atlantic]. • What’s unsuitable with these folks? Useful recommendation:

Then once more, how indoor air strikes isn’t all that straightforward to grasp, is it?

• Look for the helpers:

• Dude, no:

Up to now, I haven’t seen one single dogpile or ethical panic about Corsi-Rosenthal containers. So let’s not permit the main focus to float from engineering, mkay?

• “As many as 1 in 10 Coloradans could have been hit by lengthy COVID, a report says” [CPR News]. “State officers have launched their first estimate of how many individuals in Colorado have been hit by lengthy COVID-19. The determine is staggering: Information recommend that between 230,000 and 650,000 Coloradans could have been affected. With a state inhabitants of almost 6 million, the info recommend as many as one in 10 Coloradans have skilled lengthy COVID, in response to the report from The Workplace of Saving Individuals Cash on Healthcare within the Lt. Governor’s Workplace. And plenty of of them have struggled to find treatments and answers about what generally is a life-altering sickness.” • I like it that there’s an “Workplace of Saving Individuals Cash on Healthcare.” Simply out of curiosity, why not single payer?

• An aggregation of Covid’s neurological results:

Case Information

BioBot wastewater data from February 3:

For now, I’m going to make use of this nationwide wastewater knowledge as the most effective proxy for case knowledge (ignoring the scientific case knowledge portion of this chart, which in my opinion “goes unhealthy” after March 2022, for causes as but unexplained). At the least we will spot developments, and examine present ranges to equal previous ranges.

• “Unreported SARS-CoV-2 Residence Testing and Check Positivity” [JAMA]. “Well timed SARS-CoV-2 testing is important to lowering transmission.” Sure. Biden’s coverage is mass an infection with out mitigation, and therefore our capability to check has been nuked. Extra: “Our findings verify frequent wisdom5,6 that official COVID-19 case counts more and more underestimate the quantity of people that take a look at optimistic and vastly underestimate the variety of true infections. The share take a look at positivity in formally reported assessments seems to mirror residence take a look at positivity, although these developments could also be diverging.” • However who is aware of? Who cares?

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission (the “purple map,” which is the map CDC wants only hospitals to look at, not you.) The map is alleged to replace Monday-Friday by 8 pm:

The earlier map:

NOTE: I shall most definitely not be utilizing the CDC’s new “Community Level” metric. As a result of CDC has mixed a number one indicator (instances) with a lagging one (hospitalization) their new metric is a poor warning signal of a surge, and a poor technique to assess private threat. As well as, Covid is a illness you don’t need to get. Even in case you are not hospitalized, you’ll be able to endure from Lengthy Covid, vascular points, and neurological points. That the “inexperienced map” (which Topol calls a “capitulation” and a “deception”) continues to be up and being taken severely verges on the legal.

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s test positivity tracker, printed February 6:

0.2%. Nonetheless at a excessive plateau, equal to earlier peaks.

• “Virtually 1,000 folks wait as much as 13 hours for COVID-19 testing in Maryvale” [Arizona Central]. • Over, completely over.

Wastewater

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), January 30:

Once more, what the [family blog] is the [family blogging] use of a nationwide wastewater map the place almost all the gathering websites are [family blogging] greyed out?

January 30:

And MWRA knowledge, February 2:

Appears to me like New England’s regional surge is winding down. No bump from the scholars returning.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant knowledge is. Does no one within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, educational tempo totally incompatible with defending your self in opposition to a variant exhibiting doubling conduct.

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), January 23:

Lambert right here: XBB overtakes BQ. CH not shifting too quick, reassuring, as a result of a Tweet in Links, January 11 from GM drew consideration to it (“shows such a excessive relative progress benefit”) and in Water Cooler, January 18, from Nature: “CH.1.1 and CA.3.1 variants had been extremely proof against each monovalent and bivalent mRNA vaccinations.”

Lambert right here: Wierdly, the display shot about has been changed at the moment by knowledge from “10/7/2022.” (It’s clearly not present knowledge; BQ.1* and XBB don’t dominate.

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), January 14 (Weighted Estimates Solely*):

BQ.1* takes first place. XBB arising quick. (For BQ.1/XBB and vaccine escape, see here.) CH.* now seems, every week after Walgreens. Right here is Area 2, the Northeast:

CH.1* seems, however barely beneath the nationwide common. XBB totally dominates, making clear that Area 2 (New England) varies enormously from the nationwide common.

Listed here are all of the areas, in a sequence of uncaptioned, legend-free and complicated pie charts:

It nearly appears like, with respect to variants a minimum of, there a number of pandemics, not one. The Northeast, the place XBB (blue) dominates, and the opposite areas, with completely different proportions of different variants, however XBB not dominating. Odd. (Sure, I do know the colours are the identical as on the bar chart above. Nonetheless, there are two charts, one bar, one pie, and on a laptop computer one can not see each at identical time. Simply one other instance of CDC blithering on the stage of the smallest element.)

NOTE * CDC used to have a “Nowcast Off” radio button, which I used due to my unhealthy expertise with CDC fashions like Nowcast. CDC explains (I feel) the change within the following notice:

Weighted estimates (offered for all weeks besides the latest three weeks) are variant proportions which might be based mostly on empirical (noticed) genomic sequencing knowledge. These estimates should not out there for the latest weeks due to the time it takes to generate the unweighted knowledge, together with pattern assortment, specimen remedy, transport, evaluation, and add into public databases.

Sublineages with weighted estimates lower than 1% of all circulating variants are mixed with their mum or dad lineage. When the weighted estimate of a sublineage crosses the 1% threshold and has substitutions within the spike protein that might have an effect on vaccine efficacy, transmission, or severity, it could be separated from its mum or dad lineage and displayed by itself within the variant proportions knowledge.

Nowcast estimates (offered for the latest three weeks when the “Nowcast on” choice is chosen beneath) are model-based projections of variant proportions for the latest weeks to allow well timed public well being motion. CDC makes use of the Nowcast to forecast variant proportions earlier than the weighted estimates can be found for a given week.

Somebody who can interpret The Nice Runes can take a look at this; however I don’t have time at the moment.

• “CH.1.1 ‘Orthrus’: How Regarding Is This New Covid-19 Subvariant?” [Forbes]. “Guess what. One more new Covid-19 coronavirus subvariant has been spreading. This one’s known as CH.1.1, and it’s a descendant of the BA.2.75, you understand that beautiful Omicron subvariant that I wrote about for Forbes in July 2022. The CH.1.1 has a mutation that was current within the Delta variant, you understand that beautiful variant that turned what some prematurely thought could be the Summer season of Intercourse in 2021 into the Summer season of Surge. Since CH.1.1 will not be the simplest title to say, some have been calling this the ‘Orthrus’ subvariant, which is on no account an official title. Orthrus is the two-headed canine in Greek mythology who guarded Geryon’s cattle, versus your on a regular basis run-of-the-mill two-headed canine that you just see close to the native Starbucks. It’s not stunning that the CH.1.1 has emerged as a result of mutate is one thing that the extreme acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has confirmed that it will possibly do. The large query is how “ruff” will this “Orthrus” subvariant be on everybody.”

As a test, since New York is a BQ.1* hotbed, New York hospitalization, up to date February 4:

Hospitalization knowledge for Queens, up to date February 3:

Deaths

Demise charge (Our World in Data):

Total: 1,136,313 – 1,135,341 = 972 (972 * 365 = 354,780 deaths per 12 months, at the moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would love, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must resolve that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of dying and illness).

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, day by day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every little thing else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job. (Although CDC could also be jiggering the numbers quickly. Decrease, naturally.)

Stats Watch

There aren’t any officers statistics of curiosity at the moment.

Tech: “When Does Elon Musk Sleep? Billionaire Speaks of Limits to Fixing Twitter and His Again Ache” [Wall Street Journal]. “His schedule has turn into a part of the person’s delusion. Final month, a fan on social media marveled at Mr. Musk’s single-day itinerary: He testified in a lawsuit that morning, attended a Tesla occasion in Nevada that night after which met with Tesla’s artificial-intelligence crew late into the night time.” • Good luck on the AI factor. Let me know the way it works out.

Tech:

I used to be about to argue that crypto isn’t represenational, however then… NFTs. No pr0n NFTs. Hmm.

Right this moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 75 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 76 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 67 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Feb 6 at 1:16 PM EST.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra trustworthy than most!

The Conservatory

Pretty guitar intro, and presumably the most effective segue in reside rock and roll:

“Why Did the Beatles Get So Many Dangerous Critiques?” [The Honest Broker]. “I feel it’s extra precious to ask how these critics, specialists of their subject, not solely missed the mark, however in such an absurd approach. They actually had been handed the best recordings of their period to evaluation, and blew them off. Each traditional music on these albums was not solely attacked, however really mocked…. I now understand that the Beatles had been getting punished for the way shortly they had been pushing rock music forward. For those who learn sufficient of those hit items, you retain listening to the frustration that the brand new Beatles album doesn’t sound just like the earlier one….. The unhappy reality is the critics usually function by trying within the rearview mirror. Like generals, they fail on the battlefield as a result of their technique is constructed on the final warfare. And that’s the identical cause why jazz critics attacked Charlie Parker, Dizzy Gillespie, and Thelonious Monk within the Nineteen Forties. Or Coltrane within the Nineteen Sixties. And many others. and so on. And are most likely making comparable missteps within the present day…. I elevate all this primarily to offer the Beatles full credit score for his or her achievement. No musicians in historical past, by my measure, ever labored so courageously to disrupt the exact same formulation that they themselves created. Maybe Miles Davis comes shut, however even Miles would solely make a serious change in his fashion each two or three years. The Beatles reinvented themselves with each album.”

The Gallery

This, to me, is what a “regular” home appears like (nicely, possibly not the canine. However the book-cases at proper). It’s my baseline:

Which classifies and dates me fairly precisely!

Maybe if I had been French I might really feel the identical approach about this:

Class Warfare

“SEIU Native 1 Lays off 10 Staffers Amid Allegations That Dues Stay Uncollected” [In These Times]. “n January 31, Service Workers Worldwide Union (SEIU) Native 1 — the founding native of the 2-million-member worldwide union — laid off 10 of its 89 unionized staffers after little over two weeks’ discover resulting from a price range shortfall. 9 of these impacted by layoffs are organizers or grievance representatives, which is sort of a 3rd of the member-facing employees on the union, in response to the Chicago Information Guild, the union that represents Native 1 staffers. ‘All of us on the bottom really doing the organizing, doing the work, constructing coalitions — we received laid off,’ says Emily Little, a laid-off Native 1 staffer who helped set up staff in sports activities stadiums in Columbus, Ohio. Anne Balay, one other laid-off staffer who spent three years organizing adjunct professors at 4 universities in St. Louis, Mo., tells In These Instances she is frightened about her members, a few of whom not have an organizer on their campaigns. ‘All of us on the bottom really doing the organizing, doing the work, constructing coalitions—we received laid off.’ Native 1 staffer Adam Stant (who was not topic to layoff) says that these layoffs come at a second when the labor motion needs to be hiring, not firing, organizers. An Financial Coverage Institute report presents proof that implies 60 million staff would be part of a union if they could. Some labor observers argue that the bottleneck stopping these staff from having a union is unions themselves. ​’There was no funding within the military of union organizers vital to fulfill demand,’ writes Hamilton Nolan in a 2022 In These Instances article, citing a 2022 report displaying that .” • Unions are like universities, then?

“REI, union agree to carry election after Cleveland staff stroll out” [Bicycle Retailer]. ” After REI Co-op’s Beachwood suburb retailer staff walked off the job minutes earlier than their shifts Friday morning, the shop agreed to phrases with the union to carry an election. In accordance with the Retail, Wholesale and Division Retailer Union (RWDSU), staff returned to work at 1:30 p.m. The settlement got here after staff walked out at 9:45 a.m., demanding the precise to vote in a free and truthful Nationwide Labor Relations Board (NLRB) election and for the corporate to cease what the RWDSU known as ‘illegal surveillance’ of staff. The election will embody all NLRB-eligible staff on the Ohio retailer, a reversal from REI’s place final week. It can happen on March 3 from noon-6 p.m. EST on the Beachwood retailer. The employees walked out as an NLRB listening to was about to start Friday. The listening to was scheduled due to staff’ calls for for the precise to vote in a free and truthful election and ‘for the corporate to cease its union busting.’ REI needed to take away greater than half of the eligible members and to dismiss the election on the listening to, the union mentioned. … Earlier union elections befell on the New York Metropolis and Berkeley, California, REI shops. Beachwood’s unionization efforts have been ongoing for greater than a 12 months. On Jan. 11, its staff filed to have a union election and sought RWDSU illustration.”

“Ohio union membership on the rise” [Axios Cleveland]. Native Axios bureaus is an intriguing improvement: “The share of statewide staff represented by a union rose from 13% in 2021 to 14% final 12 months. That may look like a modest improve, but it surely quantities to 52,000 extra Ohioans belonging to organizations designed to advance and defend their rights at work. The rise is additional proof of a rising labor motion involving native staff at Ohio establishments and world corporations alike.” • The nationwide story is slightly completely different. Helpful map:

It makes excellent sense that the poor can’t cheer-lead:

Information of the Wired

“Jury guidelines in favor of yard pizza oven homeowners in Cleveland Heights lawsuit” [WKYC]. “In accordance with the grievance, the scenario dates again to Could 2017 when the Jones household knowledgeable the defendants that use and operation of the oven would fill their residence ‘with smoke and fumes and causes the Joneses important bodily discomfort and emotional misery.’ The grievance additionally said that ‘on many events’ use and operation of the pizza oven ‘has brought on insupportable smoke and fumes on the Jones residence, and has brought on important bodily discomfort, psychological anguish and lack of use and delight’ of their residence…. The Jones couple admitted to having gone over to their neighbor’s residence for pizza, having fun with the meals and the go to previous to submitting the swimsuit. It makes the legal professional for the defendants query, why sue now?” • The primary installment for “Really feel Good Cleveland Week,” and I needed to work tougher than with Fresno. Can readers assist?

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are tremendous! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) here. From ChetG:

ChetG writes: “Right here is an icicle collective, made attainable by dense bushes. My spouse had a coronary heart assault on November 26, and the shock of it’s nonetheless with us, particularly by way of current and upcoming physician visits. So my focus is none too good, and I’ve solely begun going outside and taking images once more in January.” I all the time discover that taking pictures washes my thoughts freed from quite a lot of stressors. Very calming. Most likely not true for some, like avenue photographers, however I take a contemplative method. And better of luck to ChetG and his spouse.

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