2:00PM Water Cooler 8/29/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

As typical after a weekend and a Monday dereliction of responsibility, I’ve far an excessive amount of materials, and so the Covid part is shorter than it needs to be. Tomorrow I’ll do higher! –lambert

Chicken Track of the Day

Jap Whip-poor-will, Flycatcher Flats, Sleepy Creek Rd, Berekely Co., Hedgesville,WV
Berkeley, West Virginia, United States. “Grownup male Jap Whip-poor-will singing vegetation close to the highway.”

* * *


“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

Two households, each alike in dignity,
In truthful Verona, the place we lay our scene,
From historic grudge break to new mutiny,
The place civil blood makes civil arms unclean.
–William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet

Shakespeare says the 2 households are “alike” in dignity, however he doesn’t say how a lot dignity they really have. If Verona’s households are like our events, the reply is “not a lot.”

* * *

“The Sweep and Pressure of Part Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely advocate this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, starting here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the legislation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public which means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working by it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been moderately quite a lot of rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Struggle. To me, that is parallel to 1 lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are moderately quite a lot of revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Guy summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:]

The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated by his position within the revolt that came about on January 6, 2021.

Taking “revolt” as learn (I must do more reading), extra on my persevering with protection of Part Three.

* * *

“Trump 14th Modification: New Hampshire GOP Feuds As States Grapple With Disqualifying Trump From Poll” [Forbes]. “Bryant ‘Corky’ Messner, a New Hampshire legal professional who ran for the U.S. Senate in 2020 with Trump’s endorsement, has steered he intends to file a authorized problem questioning Trump’s 2024 candidacy below Part 3 of the 14th Modification… Messner met with New Hampshire’s Republican Secretary of State David Scanlan on Friday to debate the problem, Scanlan mentioned, prompting pushback from the state’s Republican Celebration, whose chief Chris Ager mentioned the celebration ‘will struggle to make it possible for candidates will not be denied entry to the poll.’ … Past New Hampshire, Michigan’s Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson informed MSNBC she intends to hunt a authorized opinion on the problem from the state’s legal professional basic ‘when the time is true,’ and steered she would work together with her counterparts in different battleground states like Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia to find out how one can proceed. Voters have filed lawsuits in Florida and Michigan difficult the constitutionality of Trump being on the poll, which might power state election officers’ arms, and authorized disputes over the problem are broadly anticipated to make it to the Supreme Courtroom.” 


Time for the Countdown Clock!

* * *

“Trump drops 6 factors in post-debate GOP ballot” [The Hill]. “Former President Trump noticed a slight lower in his assist amongst Republican major voters after he skipped the primary GOP debate final week, in line with a brand new ballot from Emerson School.” • Trump’s lead is so monumental {that a} six-point drop is “slight”:

Sure, just one ballot, however observe it contradicts the narrative: DeSantis, Pence, and Haley took votes from Trump; and Ramaswamy was a loser.

“The meme that also holds true about Trump’s maddening lasting energy” [MSNBC]. “Throughout Donald Trump’s first presidential run and time in workplace, there was a recurrent meme that was utilized to him: ‘#nothingmatters.’ It doesn’t matter what Trump did or mentioned, regardless of how offensive, controversial or hypocritical his public statements, none of it affected how Republican voters considered him, and none of it introduced any penalties for him. For 2024, it’s more and more clear that ‘#nothingmatters’ must return — although for a barely totally different cause. It is a marketing campaign through which, actually, nothing issues. Voters way back made up their minds about Trump: About 40% think he’s great, and the remainder of the nation can’t stand him. In a basic election, his numbers will probably be a bit greater as a result of there are Republicans who don’t like Trump however can’t think about voting for a Democrat. However there received’t be a broad swath of the citizens giving him a brand new look…. Barring the aforementioned unexpected circumstance, Trump will win the 2024 GOP nomination, face off in opposition to Biden within the basic election — and sure lose. And nothing that occurs earlier than November 2024 will matter.” • This appears to be the traditional knowledge; 2024 will not be risky. I discover that onerous to imagine.

* * *

The Occasions model of a posh and tragic story:

“The Story Behind DeSantis’s Anecdote About an ‘Abortion Survivor’: [New York Times]. “Ron DeSantis needed to dodge a debate query a couple of six-week federal abortion ban.” That’s not reporting, except the reporters are telepaths. However extra: “So the Florida governor pulled out a private story, one which had just lately turn into a part of his pitch to voters on the necessity for higher regulation of abortion rights. ‘I do know a woman in Florida named Penny,’ he mentioned. ‘She survived a number of abortion makes an attempt. She was left discarded in a pan. Thankfully, her grandmother saved her and introduced her to a unique hospital.’ … The jarring anecdote caught the eye of viewers on social media, who speculated that Mr. DeSantis was fabricating the story. However Penny does exist. Mr. DeSantis’s marketing campaign says the governor has met her. She is Miriam Hopper, who goes by Penny and is an anti-abortion activist who lives in Florida and calls herself an ‘abortion survivor.’ … In a 2013 interview with the Florida radio station WFSU, performed in the course of a statehouse debate over new abortion restrictions, Ms. Hopper mentioned that her story was primarily based on what she had been informed by her household. She mentioned that her father, raised throughout the Nice Despair, didn’t need one other baby and that she suspected a botched abortion had despatched her mom to the hospital with the issues…. Ms. Hopper’s mom, aunt, father and grandmother have died. It doesn’t seem that the incident was lined in information studies [Wrong! See below]…. Ms. Hopper mentioned that her story was primarily based on what she had been informed by her household. She mentioned that her father, raised throughout the Nice Despair, didn’t need one other baby and that she suspected a botched abortion had despatched her mom to the hospital with the issues.” • Household historical past jogs my memory of Liz Warren’s Cherokee ancestry. Learn on–

The Miami Herald model:

“DeSantis mentioned at debate a girl survived ‘a number of abortion makes an attempt.’ Right here’s the actual story” [Julie Brown, Miami Herald]. “Penny is actual and her final title is Hopper. However DeSantis failed to notice key particulars from her outstanding story: The one who tried to finish Penny’s life within the womb was not a physician and even an unlawful abortion supplier — it was her father…. This text is predicated on earlier recorded statements made by Hopper, newspaper clippings, public information and an interview with a member of the family who after chatting with a journalist at size requested to not be recognized. She confirmed that Hopper’s model of occasions has been informed in household circles for years.” • So the Occasions bungles the sourcing and will get the daddy’s position improper (in addition to burying it paragraphs deep). 

* * *

“There’s Extra Than Meets the Eye to Ramaswamy’s Local weather Remark” [Time]. “It’s price unpacking Ramaswamy’s debate feedback in higher depth. He began by declaring, brashly, that the ‘the local weather agenda is a hoax’ after which adopted up saying that the ‘anti-carbon agenda is the moist blanket on our financial system.’ He concluded arguing that ‘the truth is extra individuals are dying of dangerous local weather change insurance policies than they’re of precise local weather change.’ Ramaswamy makes clear from the leap that he opposes local weather coverage, however nowhere does he really deny that human habits is contributing to local weather change. Certainly, by speaking concerning the ‘agenda’ moderately than local weather change itself he tacitly acknowledges the truth of local weather change, or on the very least that the previous positioning of local weather change as a hoax is now not apt. In interviews following the controversy, he twisted local weather science, however he didn’t deny the phenomenon of local weather change even when given a number of alternatives to take action. However Ramaswamy did have lots to say concerning the validity of the ‘agenda,’ presumably referring to insurance policies being carried out by the Biden Administration to gradual emissions. Ramaswamy’s argument has an apparent political logic to it. Polling exhibits that the overwhelming majority of Individuals know very little concerning the Inflation Reduction Act and different Biden local weather insurance policies. And whereas Individuals more and more view local weather change as a menace, they rank it far beneath financial considerations. Certainly, one poll launched earlier this 12 months confirmed that solely 38% of Individuals could be keen to pay a $1 per 30 days carbon price to deal with local weather change. In brief, for a lot of voters, concern of a weak financial system will outweigh fears over local weather change. By branding local weather coverage as an financial downer, he and others can poison the properly for any future local weather coverage.” • To repeat:

Hmm. I can see how Biden’s local weather agenda is a hoax — although not in the best way Ramaswamy meant — however that’s not what Ramaswamy tweeted.

* * *

“Bernie Sanders downplays fellow octogenarian Biden’s age: ‘Appeared wonderful to me’” [New York Post]. “Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Sunday downplayed fellow octogenarian President Biden’s age, recalling a current assembly through which the 80-year-old commander-in-chief ‘appeared wonderful.’ ‘I met with the president, I don’t know 5 – 6 weeks in the past. We had an ideal dialogue. He appeared wonderful to me,’ Sanders informed NBC Information’ ‘Meet the Press.’” Typically Biden is wonderful; I’d speculate as a result of his workers juices him up. Other times, he’s not wonderful.

Daou on Sanders:

“Sanders hits at Cornel West over criticism of Biden” [Politico]. “‘The place I disagree with my good pal, Cornel West, is I believe in these actually very tough occasions, the place there’s a actual query whether or not democracy goes to stay in america of America. … I believe we’ve bought to carry the complete progressive group to defeat Trump or whoever the Republican nominee will probably be, [and] assist Biden,’ Sanders mentioned on CNN’s ‘State of the Union.’” “‘Nonetheless, progressives nonetheless should ‘demand that the Democratic Celebration, not simply Biden, have the center to tackle company greed and the large ranges of earnings and wealth inequality that we see in the present day,’ Sanders added.” • Unhappy to see. 

* * *

“Burisma’s Devon Archer met with then-Secretary of State Kerry simply weeks earlier than Shokin was fired” [FOX]. “‘I’ve mentioned repeatedly in my earlier interviews that [then-Ukrainian President Petro] Poroshenko fired me on the insistence of the then-Vice President Biden as a result of I used to be investigating Burisma,’ [Former Ukrainian Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin] mentioned within the interview. ‘[Poroshenko] understood and so did Vice President Biden that had I continued to supervise the Burisma investigation, we might have discovered the info concerning the corrupt actions that they have been participating in. That included each Hunter Biden and Devon Archer and others.” And however: “Nonetheless, in an announcement to Fox Information, the White Home pointed to indications that Shokin was fired as a result of he had been too mushy on corruption. The White Home additionally acknowledged that Shokin’s workplace had not been investigating Burisma or Hunter on the time of his ouster in March 2016, and it pointed to a few studies printed inside weeks of one another in 2019 by the Washington Publish, Related Press and New York Occasions that mentioned Shokin’s workplace wasn’t investigating Burisma.” • That’s wonderful, however after seeing how the story of Hunter Biden’s laptop computer was suppressed by those self same venues — to not point out the Twitter information, which present an unholy emblobbification among the many press, the intelligence group, and the Democrat Celebration, the White Home’s argument from authority now not holds water.

“Khanna says Biden aides heard his message on being overprotective: ‘Let him be on the market’” [The Hill]. “When requested on CBS’s ‘Face The Nation’ if Biden’s high aides bought Khanna’s message in April that they’re too overprotective of him, Khanna mentioned, ‘I believe they do. The president has an ideal story to inform.’” Extra Covid deaths with Trump? A proxy warfare with a nuclear energy, and one we’re shedding? Extra: “He’s [Biden] a greater politician than anybody who works for him,’ Khanna mentioned Sunday.” That’s really true, which is fairly scary. ‘Let him be on the market.’” • If I assumed Khanna was Machiavellian, I’d say he was setting Biden up for a fall; and sooner, moderately than later.

* * *

RFK asking for my vote (1):

Personal fairness shouldn’t even be within the housing enterprise. 

RFK asking for my vote (2):

The intelligence group shouldn’t even be within the information enterprise. 

* * *

“Op-Ed: Cornel West, A Prophet For President” [Osagyefo Sekou, NewsOne]. On the finish: “[E]lectoral politics are stuffed with swift transitions. Poised the elevate $70 billion by subsequent 12 months, the centrist No Labels Celebration is courting maverick Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), which has antagonistic results on the Democratic and Republican institution. Surprisingly, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (D) acquired 15% assist amongst a pattern of the Democratic Celebration’s major in a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll. His bombastic character and star energy make him a chief candidate for an unbiased run after a Democratic major that he’s absolutely going to lose. Donald Trump’s authorized troubles might shave off simply sufficient confidence that he loses a tightly contested Republican major, and he is not going to go quietly into the night time. So then, if No Labels Celebration, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Donald Trump run unbiased candidacies, splintering the Democratic and Republican Events, all bets are off. The favored vote and Electoral School might be divided in no less than 4 methods. The essential problem for West and the Inexperienced Celebration manifold: 1) achieve poll entry; 2) create a complete floor sport; 3) elevate sufficient cash to be efficient; and 4) construct out a political discourse that may form public conversations.  On this state of affairs, there’s a path to the White Home for Cornel West.” • In brief, 2024 will be risky.

* * *

Williamson asking for my vote:

* * *

“No Labels to host nominating conference in Dallas in April: Joe Lieberman” [The Hill]. “‘If we run it’s going to be a bipartisan ticket, so not solely will now we have concluded that it actually can win, however as a result of it’s bipartisan we’re assured it’s going to take equally from each events, so the concept we’re going to spoil it and reelect President Trump simply isn’t lifelike,’ Lieberman mentioned. No Labels has been pushing for a bipartisan ticket to land a third-party bid to the White Home and has just lately launched a marketing campaign in New Hampshire…. Ben Chavis, the Democratic co-chairman of No Labels, additionally informed NBC Information in June that the group ‘will not be and won’t be a spoiler in favor of Donald Trump in 2024.’ No Labels confirmed to The Hill on the time it is going to finish its third-party push if Biden is forward within the polls subsequent spring.” 

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated post, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in reality, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Be aware, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Primaries? What primaries?

“Column: Nancy Pelosi on Dylan, the Grateful Useless, a wild night time in Argentina — and the therapeutic energy of music” [Los Angeles Times]. “She’s pals with Weir and drummer Mickey Hart, having seen the Useless and diverse iterations extra occasions than she remembers. On a number of events, the elegantly styled lawmaker has been seen dancing within the wings, 4-inch heels and all.” • As a palate cleanser: 

Unexpectedly humorous and candy. (I’m additionally please the reviewer singles out Lesh, my hero, first!)


“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Government of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3). 

Keep protected on the market!

* * *


On faculty closures:

Elite Maleficence

“Hospitals are killing sufferers as a result of they don’t really feel like doing an infection management” [The Gauntlet]. “I can’t imagine I’ve to say this, however an infection management will not be one thing that may occur half time, in some instances, or solely throughout surges. As with gloves for bloodborne or hand washing for fomite transmission, protocols for airborne an infection management are a set of practices carried out completely and persistently to guard sufferers and healthcare staff alike. We don’t cease hand washing as a result of norovirus instances are down. We don’t cease sporting gloves as a result of HIV instances are down. As a physician, if you happen to’re arguing that you must be capable to expose sufferers to COVID as a result of an infection management annoys you, you shouldn’t be a physician. Discover a new profession. I guess you’d love denying insurance coverage claims. I guess you’d be a pure. Making this image much more hair-tearingly irritating for disabled folks avoiding healthcare settings is that the counter-argument for correct airborne an infection management actually is nothing past “”don’t wanna.”” There is no such thing as a logical argument for permitting the unfold of COVID-19 in healthcare settings. There is no such thing as a scientific debate concerning the methods through which COVID is spreading. There is no such thing as a danger evaluation which exhibits that most cancers sufferers or individuals who’ve simply had coronary heart assaults ought to think about a COVID an infection to be no large deal. There’s actually no excuse for this weird, unscientific mistreatment of sufferers aside from gross incompetence, institutional negligence, and systemic ableism.”

* * *

Case Information

NOT UPDATED!!! From BioBot wastewater data, August 24:

Lambert right here: Joyful recollections of tape-watching days! Closing in on a Trump-era surge stage; Biden’s, after all, are greater. It will likely be fascinating to see what occurs when colleges open up. I wish to congratulate the Biden administration and the general public well being institution, the CDC particularly, for this monumental and unprecedented achievement. And a tip of the ol’ Water Cooler hat to the Nice Barrington goons, whose insurance policies have been adopted so assiduously! A curious reality: All of Biden’s peaks are greater than Trump’s peaks. Reveals you what public well being can do when it’s firing on all eight cylinders! Musical interlude. NOTE I’m not comfortable that Biobot can’t replace this information extra often. 

Regional information. As we will see, the nationwide flattening is because of the Midwest downward swoop:

Regional variant information, August 19:

EG.5 (the orange pie slice) nonetheless appears evenly distributed. Sadly, the Midwest information will not be out there, so we will’t infer something concerning the Midwest surge and any variant(s), come what may. 

• “Anthony Fauci on the current spike in Covid instances” [BBC]. “In a large ranging interview about his life after retiring as director of the Nationwide Institute of Allergy and Infectious Illnesses, Anthony Fauci tells the BBC’s Katty Kay that 96% of the US inhabitants has a level of immunity once more 


NOT UPDATED From CDC, August 19:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“). I’m not highlighting the BA.2’s as a result of the interactive model exhibits that these BA.2’s been hanging round at a low stage for months.

From CDC, August 5:

Lambert right here: Unsure what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it seems to be like now we have a “tag staff,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 right down to dimension. I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart depends, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services reduce by directors of sick intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information will probably be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, August 19:

Lambert right here: I modified this ER chart to a Covid-only chart damaged down by age. Be aware the 0-1 age group.

NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, no less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.


I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading. However, right here’s bellwether New York City, information as of August 29:

Nonetheless getting worse. However how a lot worse?

Right here is CDC’s map…. “In Previous Week,” as a result of there’s no [family blogging date]:

Orange = “substantial enhance” (greater than 20%). Now that it’s too late, possibly we’ll swing into a few of half-assed motion.


Walgreens, August 28:

So, Walgreens is again within the sport (and how on earth did that debacle occur? We breathlessly await the information protection). The proportion of positives is the very best ever, although absolute numbers are nonetheless small relative to previous surges.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, August 7:

Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Based mostly Genomic Surveillance” information, confirming the present surge, solely two weeks late. Positive could be helpful to know if there have been any BA.2.86 in these samples, although!


NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, August 23:

Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their methodology: “These information have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?

Total: 1,173,422 – 1,173,081 =  341 * 365 = 124,465 deaths per 12 months, in the present day’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would love, although they’ll discuss themselves into something.–> If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could should resolve that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this specific tranche of loss of life and illness). 

Lambert right here: First unfavorable quantity (!). Optimism?

Extra Deaths

The Economist, August 29:

Lambert right here:  Again to virtually each day. Odd when it’s, odd when it stops. Based on a machine-learning model. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran ceaselessly with a large typo within the Legend, I figured no person was actually taking a look at it, so I bought rid it. )

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Job Openings” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of job openings declined by 338,000 from the earlier month to eight.827 million in July 2023, marking the bottom stage since March 2021 and falling beneath the market consensus of 9.465 million. It additionally represented the third consecutive month of decline in job openings, indicating that the labor market is regularly slowing after months of unprecedented financial coverage tightening by the Fed.”

* * *

* * *

Right now’s Concern & Greed Index: 50 Impartial (earlier shut: 48 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 47 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 29 at 1:57 PM ET. C’mon, Mr. Market! By some means!

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 185. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra trustworthy than most!

The Jackpot

“The Doomsday Prepper’s Daughter” [Jessica Wildfire, OK Doomer]. A wild story from Kentucky, price a learn. However can readers affirm? Right here’s the ethical, spoiler eliminated: “Most survivalists don’t spend their time hoarding meals and weapons in underground bunkers. They deal with studying how one can develop meals, honing their expertise, and growing relationships. The wealthy do the alternative of all this. They suppose they’ll cover in metal packing containers from all of the chaos they created. [C. Wesley Morgan’s] story exhibits us how properly that seems. The wealthy aren’t actually planning. They’re indulging in survivalist fantasies.”

Class Warfare

“COVID-19 and Schooling: An Up to date Survey of the Analysis” [Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland]. “Achievement ranges on a wide range of standardized exams fell throughout the pandemic…. Proof means that take a look at scores throughout the pandemic have been associated to the selection of educational mode. Relying on the precise statistical specification, Jack et al. (2022) discover that in-person education is related to a couple of 13 proportion level or 14 proportion level greater go charge in arithmetic and an 8 proportion level or 9 proportion level greater go charge in ELA than with digital education, whereas hybrid education is related to a couple of 7 proportion level or 8 proportion level greater go charge in arithmetic and a 5 proportion level or 6 proportion level greater go charge in ELA than with digital education. The results are largest within the decrease grades. Goldhaber et al. (2022) discover that distant instruction is related to widening achievement gaps, primarily as a result of the unfavorable results of distant instruction are bigger in magnitude at high-poverty colleges and to a lesser extent as a result of high-poverty colleges are extra possible to make use of distant instruction.”

NGOs gotta NGO:

Information of the Wired

“The World’s Oldest Cat Door Has Been Letting Working Cats Enter the Cathedral For the reason that 14th Century” 

Information of the Wired

I’m not but feeling wired in the present day.

* * *

Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are wonderful! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) here. From REH:

REH writes: “Buckwheat flowering within the excessive desert of Oregon.”

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In case you hate PayPal, you possibly can e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I offers you instructions on how one can ship a examine. Thanks!

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *