Deceleration (by means of 12/3)! | Econbrowser

Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (NY Fed) Weekly Financial Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI, by means of 12/3; and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker  by means of 11/26.

Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (NY Fed) Weekly Financial Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index for US plus 2% pattern (inexperienced). Supply: NY Fed through FREDOECDWECI, all accessed 12/8, and writer’s calculations.


The deceleration has been fairly constant over time, and throughout indicators. The OECD Weekly Tracker, which exhibits a marked decline, is simply accessible by means of 11/26. This sequence — based mostly upon a giant knowledge strategy — exhibits substantial variation over time, in my expertise. Helpfully, they supply a 95% excessive/low numbers. In Determine 2, I plot this for the most recent classic, together with choose earlier vintages.

Determine 2: Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker by means of 11/26 (tan), excessive/low (mild tan), by means of 11/12 (inexperienced), by means of 10/15 (pink), by means of 8/20 (darkish blue), all year-on-year, %. Supply: OECD, numerous releases.

Given these knowledge, I’d wish to wait earlier than claiming adverse y/y progress. Nonetheless, what is obvious is the US financial system’s progress charge is decelerating on a year-on-year foundation.



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