Extra Deceleration: Weekly Financial Indicators through 12/10/2022
Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (NY Fed) Weekly Financial Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI, by way of 12/10; and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker by way of 11/26 (not up to date).
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for US plus 2% pattern (inexperienced). Supply: NY Fed by way of FRED, OECD, WECI, and writer’s calculations.
The deceleration has been fairly constant over time, and throughout indicators, except the Weekly Tracker. The WEI studying for the week ending 12/10 of 0.6% is interpretable as a y/y quarter development of 0.6% if the 0.6% studying have been to persist for a whole quarter. The OECD Weekly Tracker studying of -0.5% is interpretable as a y/y development fee of -0.5% for 12 months ending 10/26 (this sequence has not been up to date in two weeks, and the interpretation of this studying is in last week’s post). The Baumeister et al. studying of 0.6% is interpreted as a 0.6% development fee in extra of long run pattern development fee. Common development of US GDP over the 2000-19 interval is about 2%, so this suggests a 2.6% development fee for the 12 months ending 12/10.
Are these most up-to-date readings per an ongoing recession? For reference, I present the identical sequence for early 2020 in Determine 2.
Determine 2: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for US plus 2% pattern (inexperienced). NBER outlined recession dates shaded grey. Supply: NY Fed by way of FRED, OECD, WECI, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
