Federal Reserve “Cancelling” the Santa Claus Rally?
The story of the week, the month, and sure the entirety of subsequent yr, is the Federal Reserve and the remainder of the world’s central banks.
And with good cause! The Fed’s coverage path is the single most vital factor driving the inventory market proper now.
But it surely’s not the solely factor…
Two less-than-rosy numbers got here out final week which contributed to the swan dive that closed out the week.
First was retail gross sales on Thursday. U.S. retail gross sales noticed their largest drop in 11 months in November, dropping 0.6% from October. 9 out of 13 classes had been decrease, together with big-ticket objects like autos and furnishings — the issues individuals have a tendency to purchase on credit score.
One awful month doesn’t make a development. But it surely does recommend that the Fed’s charge mountain climbing is working, as dearer credit score could also be curbing borrowing and spending.
Supply: US Census Bureau
It additionally suggests that vacation buying this yr may be a flop … as a number of main retailers have been telegraphing for months. “Black Friday” doesn’t actually imply the day after Thanksgiving as we speak. It’s a unfastened idea for pre-Christmas gross sales, which now seem to start out effectively earlier than Halloween. And the information, it seems that the bump in gross sales we would usually anticipate in November got here in October as an alternative.
Peter Lynch, legendary supervisor of the Constancy Magellan fund and one in all the most profitable inventory pickers in historical past, is legendary for his recommendation to “spend money on what .”
I’d take {that a} step additional to “spend money on what you see.” In your day by day comings and goings, have a look at what individuals are really doing. Are their buying carts full? Do the parking heaps in the mall have extra or fewer vehicles than common for this time of yr? This will likely inform you numerous about what to anticipate as soon as the post-Christmas earnings begin rolling in.
One other factor we’re seeing is a lower-than-expected Buying Managers Index numbers out of the manufacturing and providers sectors…
Each had been anticipated to rebound from December after falling to their lowest ranges since the COVID lockdown panic in November. However they fell extra, in opposition to consensus expectations.
There’s a whole lot of nuance to be present in these reviews, however in abstract, they point out that enterprise situations are worsening as we shut out 2022, and the threat of recession is rising.
All this information comes throughout a seasonally bullish interval for shares … which clearly hasn’t manifested this vacation season.
We’ve been beating the drum in Banyan Edge for the previous two weeks, warning of the potential for a recession and extra market ache forward.
However we’re additionally not recommending you conceal your money in Mason jars buried in the yard. We view any turbulence forward as a main alternative. And talking of that…
A Sneak Peak at This Week’s Insights
The massive theme uniting all our gurus subsequent week is vitality — with every giving a novel tackle how the new “Tremendous Bull” in vitality shares will proceed.
Tomorrow, Ian King will take a long-term have a look at the renewable vitality sector. Renewables, alongside conventional vitality markets, have seen an enormous increase in 2023. And Ian thinks the two rallies, seemingly distinct, are literally closely interlinked…
Charles Mizrahi will do what he does greatest on Wednesday and provides his tackle the fundamentals for vitality shares and significantly oil shares over the subsequent 5 years. Charles believes that traders are severely discounting the significance of fossil fuels in the world economic system, and the way lengthy they’ll stay entrenched…
On Thursday, Mike Carr is giving his tackle vitality inventory valuations. Regardless of the robust outperformance in 2022, many high quality vitality shares are nonetheless wildly low cost from a valuation standpoint. In the event you suppose you missed the vitality inventory rally, don’t miss Mike’s take later this week…
And on Friday, Adam O’Dell will cap off the week with an vital lesson for traders spoiled by the bull market of the 2010s. What labored final time in all probability gained’t work this time. In the event you’ve been eyeing the large decline in tech shares as a shopping for alternative, do your self a favor and maintain off shopping for till you hear what Adam has to say.
However earlier than we get to any of that…
Don’t Miss The Banyan Edge Podcast
After last week’s inaugural edition of The Banyan Edge Podcast, we’re following it up as we speak with a deep dive into the Federal Reserve’s sport plan.
I’m sitting down with Adam O’Dell, Mike Carr and Ian King to get their take and to listen to how they plan to navigate their readers via what might be a very tough stretch.
You gained’t need to miss this, as the Fed’s coverage in the subsequent yr is the single most vital variable to the market’s path.
You may anticipate that in your inbox at 5 p.m. Jap as we speak, however till then, ship any questions you will have for our consultants to BanyanEdge@BanyanHill.com. We’ll reply your questions in the podcast’s Q&A piece.
Speak Quickly,
Charles SizemoreChief Editor, The Banyan Edge
P.S. In case you missed it…
We’re a couple of week and alter away from Adam O’Dell’s landmark oil presentation to cap off 2022.
He and his crew have had their head down for weeks researching the greatest oil shares to purchase and maintain as we enter an energy-dominant market in 2023 in past.
If you’d like the greatest shot at outperforming the market subsequent yr — even probably sidestepping the bear market totally — you’ll make a degree to be there.
