Ideas On Proudly owning the Libs

@TBPInvictus right here. (Additionally on Post and Mastodon).

Pleased holidays to all, and the very best for 2023. It’s been a sizzling minute since my final publish, hope I bear in mind how this factor works.

I’ve been an enormous fan of Twitter for nicely over a decade. It’s a hearth hose of invaluable data from numerous dependable (in case your follows are strong) purveyors of all method of reports, on each subject conceivable, from each nook of the globe. It has been disheartening, to say the least, to look at the vivisection Elon Musk is acting on it since closing his buy in October.

Watching Musk’s ongoing antics, it has develop into very clear to me that his actions usually are not solely destroying Twitter, however the collateral injury is taking Tesla down with it – a veritable twofer of ineptitude and rake-stepping.

Let’s take a look at some numbers:

The state of NY maintains a terrific catalog of information that may be discovered here. Drill down a bit and we get to Vehicle, Snowmobile, and Boat Registrations. Filtering, we study that there are ~48,795 Teslas registered within the state. We’ll do some additional work on that in a bit, however let’s put it apart for now.

The state of NY (clearly) additionally retains information of election outcomes. One such web page could be discovered here.

Do you see the place that is going?

My thesis is that in Musk’s newfound want to own the Libs, he’s alienating the very individuals who have overwhelmingly been patrons of his EVs. Learn how to validate this thesis? Properly, let’s have a look at information for the state of New York from three distinct datasets: Census Bureau provides us population by county, the state provides us a breakdown of 2020 election outcomes (see above), and one other state database provides us (as however considered one of a really spectacular catalog) car registrations (once more, see above).

The desk above comprises the highest 10 and backside 10 Trump-voting NY counties within the 2020 election, exhibiting the proportion of Trump voters, the inhabitants, the variety of TSLA registrations, and critically, TSLA registrations per 10k inhabitants. The outcome:.

Adjusted for inhabitants, Teslas are ~5x extra widespread in closely Democratic counties than they’re in closely Republican counties.

The info above in all probability play a job within the efficiency of TSLA’s inventory, which was $328 on the day Musk introduced his intention to purchase Twitter (see under).

Musk is doing himself no favors. In truth, it’s arduous to think about how he could possibly be doing extra injury to each properties than he at present is, however I don’t wish to underestimate him.

My pal Nick Hanauer has apparently seen sufficient; I’m certain he’s not alone.

Extra charts after the jump…

See additionally:
An EV Buying Guide for People Fed Up With Tesla’s Elon Musk (Bloomberg, December 19, 2022)

I’m a Tesla Investor. Elon Musk Is a Danger to the Company. (TDB, December 20, 2022)

Beforehand:
Get Yourself Some “No Men” (December 19, 2022)

What’s Ailing Tesla’s Stock? (October 17, 2022)

BR right here, leaping in from vacay so as to add just a few extra charts.

I’ve been amazed for fairly a while by the worth motion in Tesla, and genuinely perplexed about Musk.

Charles Gaba picked up the place Invictus left off, making use of an analogous evaluation to some totally different states. He confirmed the fundamental premise if Musk proudly owning the Libs is a self-own, a weird method of alienating most of Tesla’s core house owners and future potential patrons.

Gaba notes:

“Counties the place Trump received < 30% of the vote in 2020 registered *60x* as many Teslas PER CAPITA than counties the place he acquired >70%.” (not 60 p.c, however 60 occasions!)

Right here is the chart of California:

Gaba carried out the identical evaluation on 6 states (with the caveat that every state manages its information considerably otherwise).

Its much less dramatic than California alone, however the total conclusion is the same: In states as different as California, Florida, Montana, New York, Tennessee & Virginia, representing 98M individuals or ~30% of the U.S. inhabitants, Tesla registrations are 6.7x greater in counties the place Trump acquired lower than 30% of the vote than counties the place he acquired > 70% of the vote.