Unfavourable GDP Progress Is Delayed Once more

Within the Survey of Skilled Forecasters median, however some nonetheless see it as doubtless). Right here’s an fascinating image from the latest Survey of Professional Forecasters and GDPNow.

Determine 1: GDP (daring black), Might Survey of Skilled Forecasters median (blue), February SPF median (tan), Might 17 GDPNow (sky blue), and potential GDP (grey). Supply: BEA 2023Q1 advance, CBO (February 2023), Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and creator’s calculations.

The median response signifies no decline in development till 2023Q4. Alternatively, development is meager — lower than 1% in Q2 (q/q SAAR), about half a ppt in Q3, and basically no development in This fall. The decline is thus moved from Q3 to This fall. (Should you take a look at the November survey, median development was basically zero in Q1.)

This newest outlook contrasts with Torsten Slok’s recounting of consensus, which he describes as a “onerous touchdown”.

Supply: T. Slok, Might 16, 2023. (not on-line).

This implies to me that completely different teams of economists are conveying completely different views of the outlook (the timing may matter too — most likely a few weeks distinction right here).

By the best way, I’ve stayed away from the time period “recession” as a result of unfavorable GDP development is just not essentially equal to a recession.