Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (NY Fed) Weekly Financial Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker by 1/14/2023, launched yesterday.
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for US plus 2% pattern (inexperienced). Supply: NY Fed by way of FRED, OECD, WECI, and creator’s calculations.
There’s been a pointy rebound within the Weekly Tracker, which had dipped into unfavourable for the week ending 11/26, now exceeding the WEI (1.2%) and WECI+2% (2.2%). The WEI studying for the week ending 1/14 of 1.2% is interpretable as a y/y quarter development of 1.2% if the 1.2% studying had been to persist for a complete quarter.The Baumeister et al. studying of 0.17% is interpreted as a 0.17% development charge in extra of long run pattern development charge. Common development of US GDP over the 2000-19 interval is about 2%, so this suggests a 2.17% development charge for the yr ending 12/24. The OECD Weekly Tracker studying of two.9% is interpretable as a y/y development charge of two.9% for yr ending 1/14. The 95% interval for the US weekly tracker is [2.3%, 4.2%].
The Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index is calculated on the state degree. This permits one to see the dispersion within the cyclical element, proven in Determine 2 beneath (NOTE: these are cyclical charges, so add the state particular pattern development to get precise development). The US collection is proven as daring darkish crimson, extending to 1/14/2023 (state degree finish two weeks earlier).
Determine 2: Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for states (through 12/31/2022) and US (through 1/14/2023) (daring darkish crimson). Supply: WECI.
In sum, weekly indices are decelerating, excluding the Weekly Tracker which experiences substantial revisions. The WECI additionally exhibits decelerations in cyclical development throughout most states.